USDMXN to trade back above 20 before month-end – Rabobank

Economists at Rabobank expect Banxico to raise rates 75 basis points to 10.00%. In any case, USDMXN is set to trade above the 20 level again.

MXN to outperform the rest of the LatAm region

“We expect another 75 bps hike from Banxico on November 10, but after that meeting, we expect a 50 bps hike on December 15 and a final 25 bps hike on February 9, taking the policy rate up to a terminal rate of 10.75%.”

“In terms of USDMXN, we did recently see a dip below support at 19.50 but that didn’t last long and our indicators are pointing to a likely reversal, with a move back above 19.80 and a likely break back above 20 yet again.”

“If our 75 bps hike call is incorrect and Banxico raises rates 50 bps, then a break above 20 is likely to happen in the aftermath of the decision, but even if a 75 bps hike is forthcoming, we expect USDMXN to trade back above 20 before month-end but for MXN to outperform the rest of the LatAm region.”