Fed's median view of fed funds rate at end-2023 rises to 5.1% from 4.6% in September

The Federal Reserve's revised Summary of Economic Projections (SEP), the so-called dot plot, showed that the median view of the policy rate at end-2023 stood at 5.1%, up from 4.6% in September's SEP.

Additional takeaways

"Fed's median view of fed funds rate at end-2024 4.1% (prev 3.9%)."

"Fed's median view of fed funds rate at end-2025 3.1% (prev 2.9%)."

"Fed's median view of fed funds rate in longer run 2.5% (prev 2.5%)."

"Fed sees US GDP growing 0.5% in 2023 (prev 1.2%); 1.6% in 2024 (prev 1.7%); 1.8% in 2025 (prev 1.8%); longer-run at 1.8% (prev 1.8%)."

"Fed sees PCE inflation at 3.1% in 2023 (prev 2.8%); 2.5% in 2024 (prev 2.3%); 2.1% in 2025 (prev 2.0%); longer-run 2.0% (prev 2.0%)."

"Fed sees year-end US jobless rate at 4.6% in 2023 (prev 4.4%), 4.6% in 2024 (prev 4.4%); 4.5% in 2025 (prev 4.3%); longer-run at 4.0% (prev 4.0%)."

"Fed sees core PCE inflation at 3.5% in 2023 (prev 3.1%), 2.5% in 2024 (prev 2.3%), 2.1% in 2025 (prev 2.1%)."

"Only two policymakers project year-end 2023 fed funds rate below 5%."