GBP/USD sticks to gains near one-month peak, just above mid-1.2200s ahead of BoE’s Bailey

• GBP/USD continues scaling higher on Monday and hits a one-month high amid a weaker USD.
• Bets for smaller Fed rate hikes and a positive risk tone weigh on the safe-haven greenback.
• Recession fears keep a lid on any further gains ahead of the BoE Governor Bailey’s speech.

The GBP/USD pair gains traction for the third successive day and climbs to the 1.2300 neighbourhood, or a one-month high during the Asian session on Monday. The pair, however, retreats a few pips from the daily top and is currently placed around the 1.2260-1.2265 region, still up over 0.30% for the day.

The US Dollar drops to a fresh seven-month low on the first day of a new week amid growing acceptance that the Fed will soften its hawkish stance. This, in turn, is seen as a key factor pushing the GBP/USD pair higher. The markets now seem convinced that the Fed may be nearing the end of its rate-hiking cycle amid signs of easing inflationary pressures.

Investors ramped up bets for smaller Fed rate hikes going forward after the US CPI report released last week showed that consumer prices fell for the first time in more than 2-1/2 years in December. Adding to this, several FOMC members backed the case for a 25 bps rate hike in February. This, along with a positive risk tone weighs on the safe-haven buck.

That said, looming recession fears - fueled by the recent COVID-19 outbreak in China and the protracted Russia-Ukraine war - keep a lid on the optimism in the markets. Traders also seem reluctant to place aggressive bets around the GBP/USD pair ahead of the Bank of England Andrew Bailey's speech later during the early North American session on Monday.

Moreover, there isn't any major market-moving economic data due for release from the UK and the US markets will be closed in observance of Martin Luther King Jr. Day. This, in turn, makes it prudent to wait for strong follow-through buying before positioning for any further appreciating move for the GBP/USD pair amid a bleak outlook for the UK economy.

Technical levels to watch