USD may find further support if disinflation trend in US shows signs of slowing – OCBC

The US Dollar has started the week on a firmer tone after closing higher for a second consecutive week. Tomorrow’s US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data should offer some guidance on USD direction in the near term, economists at OCBC Bank report.

Risks modestly skewed to the upside for now

“If disinflation trend in US shows signs of slowing (even if it is temporary), then risk sentiment could come under pressure and the USD may find further support. However, if disinflation trend proves entrenched instead of bumpy (i.e. CPI comes in softer than expected), then a resumption of USD softness could return.”

“Daily momentum is bullish while RSI shows signs of resuming its rise. Risks modestly skewed to the upside for now.” 

“Resistance here at 103.60 (50 DMA), 104.10 (23.6% fibo retracement September peak to February low) and 105.”

“Support at 102.50 (21 DMA), 101.60 and 100.80.”