ISM Services PMI Preview: Levels above 54 to endorse the Fed’s hawkish tone and support USD – ING

ISM will release the February US Services PMI report later in the day. Economists at ING the impact on markets can be sizeable.

Consensus expects a stabilisation in ISM Services

“Consensus is centred around a marginal decrease from 55.2 to 54.5, which would confirm speculation on recession is too premature and would continue to endorse the Fed’s hawkish rhetoric. We think this should allow further stabilisation of the Dollar around current levels.” 

“A return to sub-50 levels is seen as rather unlikely and would cause a significant unwinding of hawkish Fed bets and probably the start of a new Dollar downtrend.”

“A read in the 50-53 area would probably be enough to generate some dovish repricing and should weigh on the Dollar. However, as long as jobs data remain strong (payrolls are released next week), we shouldn’t see a USD downtrend fully materialise.”