Fed to deliver 25-basis-point hike in May, stay on hold rest of year – Reuters poll

“The US Federal Reserve (Fed) will deliver a final 25-basis-point interest rate increase in May and then hold rates steady for the rest of 2023,” per the latest Reuters poll of 105 economists published early Thursday in Asia. The survey details also showed a short and shallow recession this year was likely.

Additional findings

Nearly 90% - 94 of 105 - of the economists predicted the U.S. central bank would hike its key policy rate by 25 basis points to the 5.00%-5.25% range at a May 2-3 meeting, in line with market pricing.

59 of 100 economists expected the Fed to keep its policy rate unchanged through at least this year.

Only 26 respondents with an end-2023 view forecast a cut, similar to market expectations.

Thirty-seven of 47 respondents to an additional question said there would be a U.S. recession in 2023, of which 31 said it would be short and shallow.

Four said it would be long and shallow and two characterized it as deep.

The poll found a median 70% probability of a U.S. recession in the coming two years - a slight upgrade from the 65% last month, and forecast growth of only 1.1% and 0.8% this year and in 2024, respectively.

EUR/USD struggles for clear directions

As the latest polls fail to provide any fresh insights than widely discussed in the markets, the EUR/USD pair remains sidelined around 1.0950 after falling the previous day.

Also read: EUR/USD Price Analysis: Bears flex muscles but 1.0910 is the key support