NZD/USD rejected at the 100-day SMA ahead of eventful week

• The NZD/USD faced strong resistance at the 100-day SMA of 0.6150 and retreated to 0.6120.
• Migration data will be the highlight of the early Tuesday session.
• US CPI is the main highlight of Tuesday.

The NZD/USD was rejected at the 0.6150 level and the pair retraced to the 0.6120 area. As the market awaits significant economic data on Tuesday, visitor arrivals figures and the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) is expected to dominate investor sentiment and shape the trajectory of the currency pair in the short term. 

Eyes on Visitors Arrivals and US CPI

As the tourist industry from New Zealand dominates a large total of its GDP, the Visitor's Arrivals released by Stats NZ are closely watched by investors. The flow of tourists is expected to increase by 2.1% YoY in April, decelerating from the previous record in March.

Investors are eagerly awaiting the release of the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) data for May, as it is expected to provide crucial guidance for market direction. Analysts predict that the headline figure will reflect a slowdown in the year-on-year (YoY) rate to 4.1%, while the Core measure is projected to decrease from the previous YoY rate of 5.5% to 5.3%. In that sense, the inflation outlook is closely monitored by the Federal Reserve as one of its long-term objectives is to assure price stability.

Meanwhile, markets are expecting a hike pause for Wednesday’s meeting but a strong likelihood of 25 basis points in July. That being said, both Chair Powell's press conference and the updated macroeconomic forecast of the Federal Open Market Committee will shape the expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's (Fed) next moves.

NZD/USD Levels to watch

According to the daily chart, the NZD/USD holds a neutral tilt with a bullish bias for the short term. Despite indicators losing some traction, there are still in positive territory, suggesting that there may be more upside potential.

Resistance Levels to watch: 0.6150,100-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), 0.6180, 0.6200.
Supports Levels to watch: 0.6125, 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA), 0.6100, 0.6080.

NZD/USD Daily chart