NFP: Significant upside surprise neeed to reinforce the US Dollar’s recent upward momentum – MUFG

All eyes are on the NFP report to assess if the Fed hiking cycle is close to an end. Economists at MUFG Bank analyze USD outlook.

NFP in focus as Fed in data dependent mode when setting policy

It is a similar set-up to last month when the release of another stronger than expect ADP survey this week has raised market expectations for a strong payrolls report today.

We remain confident that the Fed can pause its hiking cycle in September. It would take a significant upside surprise from today's NFP report to challenge those expectations and reinforce the US Dollar’s recent upward momentum. 

See – NFP Preview: Forecasts from 9 major banks, moderate downward trend in job growth