EUR/USD: The risk for a move below 1.0800 is high – Credit Suisse

EUR/USD’s decline has extended to the 200-Day Moving Average (DMA) at 1.0800. Economists at Credit Suisse analyze the pair’s outlook.

Resistance at 1.0932 capping can now keep the immediate risk lower

Whilst 1.0800 is holding for now as suspected, if our view for the USD is correct this would suggest the risk for a move below 1.0800 in due course is high for a test of what we look to be better support at the 38.2% retracement of the 2022/2023 uptrend and May low at 1.0634/12.

Whilst we would look for an attempt to find a better floor at 1.0634/12, should weakness instead extend this would warn of a more important change of trend lower, with supports then seen next at 1.0516, then the 50% retracement at 1.0407. 

Resistance at 1.0932 capping can now keep the immediate risk lower. Above 1.1066 though stays seen needed to see the top negated to reassert a sideways range.