ECB is unlikely to raise rates any further – Commerzbank

Euro area inflation is slowing down. The doves at the ECB will take a positive view of today's consumer price data, economists at Commerzbank report.

Euro area inflation falls significantly

Euro area inflation fell sharply by 0.9 percentage points to 4.3% in September. Excluding the volatile prices of energy, food, alcohol and tobacco, inflation also fell from 5.3% to 4.5%. 

Admittedly, almost half of the decline is due to one-off effects such as the expiry of the 9-Euro ticket in Germany in September 2022. But even after adjusting for these effects, the core rate is now also on a downward trend. A majority of the members of the ECB's Governing Council should be pleased with this. 

The ECB is unlikely to raise rates any further.