US: Labour market remained resilient in September – UOB

Senior Economist at UOB Group Alvin Liew reviews the latest release of US Nonfarm Payrolls.

Key Takeaways

The latest US Labor Market Report pointed to a resilient US employment market. Job creation was well above expectations at 336,000 in Sep (versus Bloomberg est 170,000), the jobs prints for Jul & Aug were revised higher by 119,000. Jobless rate stayed at 3.8% (same as Aug), highest since Feb 2022 as unemployed numbers were little changed, and participation rate held at 62.8%. Wage growth was below forecast, and the y/y pace was slowest since Jun 2021.  

Job creation was more broad-based within services in Sep as job increases were led mainly by leisure & hospitality, health care and social assistance while transport hiring rebounded and losses in the information sector were minimized. 

The strong Sep job creation added to Fed rate hike expectations although the slower wage growth helped soothe those worries. We continue to expect one more 25-bps hike to bring the FFTR terminal rate to 5.00%-5.75% lasting through mid-2024. The Fed hiking cycle is likely near/at its end.