USD may extend the move lower again if Core PCE surprises to the downside – OCBC

The October US PCE deflator is the main event today. Economists at OCBC Bank analyze how the report could impact the Dollar.

Any upside surprise to Core PCE may temporarily stall the USD downtrend

Consensus expects Core PCE to come in at 3.5% YoY for Oct (vs. 3.7% in Sep). 

If Core PCE surprises to the downside, then USD may extend the move lower again. However, any upside surprise to Core PCE may temporarily stall the USD downtrend and concomitantly, see some unwinding of rate cut bets.

See – US Core PCE Preview: Forecasts from seven major banks, inflation falls, but remains too high