7 Jan 2015
BNPP: Will today’s FOMC minutes provide a strong signal for markets? - eFXnews
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The eFXnews Team note BNPP views that with most FOMC members likely unsure themselves of the timing and pace of Fed’s policy tightening, the minutes will likely stress data dependence over the months ahead.
Key Quotes
“It is questionable whether today’s release of the minutes for the December FOMC meeting will provide a strong signal for markets. With most FOMC members likely unsure themselves on the likely timing and pace of Fed policy tightening, the minutes are likely to stress data dependence over the months ahead.”
“Moreover, the nature of the minutes has often tended to confuse rather than clarify the Fed outlook over the past two years, as markets struggle to weigh the importance of various opinions voiced by different unidentified participants.”
“With long USD a high consensus and heavily positioned view coming into the New Year and with market participants seemingly inclined to pare back exposures this week, risks for the USD are probably skewed to the downside heading into the release.”
“Moreover, the USD has often reversed its immediate post-meeting reaction on the release of the minutes, especially following big post FOMC moves and the USD gained sharply in the aftermath of the December meeting. However, whatever the immediate reaction is, we think attention will quickly turn to back to the data as this will ultimately determine the Fed’s course of action.”
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.
Key Quotes
“It is questionable whether today’s release of the minutes for the December FOMC meeting will provide a strong signal for markets. With most FOMC members likely unsure themselves on the likely timing and pace of Fed policy tightening, the minutes are likely to stress data dependence over the months ahead.”
“Moreover, the nature of the minutes has often tended to confuse rather than clarify the Fed outlook over the past two years, as markets struggle to weigh the importance of various opinions voiced by different unidentified participants.”
“With long USD a high consensus and heavily positioned view coming into the New Year and with market participants seemingly inclined to pare back exposures this week, risks for the USD are probably skewed to the downside heading into the release.”
“Moreover, the USD has often reversed its immediate post-meeting reaction on the release of the minutes, especially following big post FOMC moves and the USD gained sharply in the aftermath of the December meeting. However, whatever the immediate reaction is, we think attention will quickly turn to back to the data as this will ultimately determine the Fed’s course of action.”
This content has been provided under specific arrangement with eFXnews.