9 Jan 2015
Prospects of a 2Q15 Fed rate hike stronger – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The ING Team believes that a likely stronger retail sales data this week along with the growing consumer confidence, increases the prospects for a Fed rate hike in 2Q15.
Key Quotes
“The US labour report will set the tone for the week ahead and with jobless claims back below 300,000 per week, the ISM indicators pointing to ongoing hiring and the ADP payrolls surveys suggesting that the labour market is in good health, we look for another robust rise in employment. This should be enough to prompt another small dip in the unemployment rate and give the Federal Reserve greater confidence that the labour market is tightening.”
“With this week’s core retail sales likely to be strong (once the price effects on gasoline component and the volatile autos subset are ignored) and consumer confidence edging higher, the prospects of a 2Q15 rate hike are looking stronger. This is despite CPI and PPI both being dragged markedly lower by the effects of lower energy prices and dollar strength.”
Key Quotes
“The US labour report will set the tone for the week ahead and with jobless claims back below 300,000 per week, the ISM indicators pointing to ongoing hiring and the ADP payrolls surveys suggesting that the labour market is in good health, we look for another robust rise in employment. This should be enough to prompt another small dip in the unemployment rate and give the Federal Reserve greater confidence that the labour market is tightening.”
“With this week’s core retail sales likely to be strong (once the price effects on gasoline component and the volatile autos subset are ignored) and consumer confidence edging higher, the prospects of a 2Q15 rate hike are looking stronger. This is despite CPI and PPI both being dragged markedly lower by the effects of lower energy prices and dollar strength.”