20 Jan 2015
China Q4 GDP key event in Asia - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - The key event in Asia will be the release of China Q4 GDP, notes Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, with the bank's forecast in line with the consensus at 7.2% y/y.
Key Quotes
"The key event in Asia/Australia will be the release of China Q4 GDP at 1pm Syd/10am local. The Westpac forecast is in line with the consensus, 7.2% y/y, with the previous print at 7.3%. Net exports have been strong, which will partially offset weaker nominal activity and domestic demand. We will also see Dec IP, with the market expecting a tick up to 7.4% y/y v 7.2% in Nov. Deepening PPI deflation is expected to pull up real growth, despite soft PMIs. Other Chinese data for Dec will also be released at the same time, including retail sales and fixed asset investment."
"The bi-monthly Global Dairy Trade auction takes place during the London/NY overlap. The previous auction saw the whole milk powder price rise 1.6%, though it is still about -54% from the Feb 2014 high. An emerging NZ drought of uncertain severity could produce extra demand at this auction and thus support prices."
"In Europe, we have the Jan ZEW survey of analysts and investors. Expectations of economic growth are seen to rise after falling through 2014, to 40.0 this month v 34.9 in Dec. The release, however, is overshadowed by the ECB meeting on Thursday. Westpac and the market are both expecting a small improvement in the US NAHB housing market survey, though headwinds persist in the housing market."
Key Quotes
"The key event in Asia/Australia will be the release of China Q4 GDP at 1pm Syd/10am local. The Westpac forecast is in line with the consensus, 7.2% y/y, with the previous print at 7.3%. Net exports have been strong, which will partially offset weaker nominal activity and domestic demand. We will also see Dec IP, with the market expecting a tick up to 7.4% y/y v 7.2% in Nov. Deepening PPI deflation is expected to pull up real growth, despite soft PMIs. Other Chinese data for Dec will also be released at the same time, including retail sales and fixed asset investment."
"The bi-monthly Global Dairy Trade auction takes place during the London/NY overlap. The previous auction saw the whole milk powder price rise 1.6%, though it is still about -54% from the Feb 2014 high. An emerging NZ drought of uncertain severity could produce extra demand at this auction and thus support prices."
"In Europe, we have the Jan ZEW survey of analysts and investors. Expectations of economic growth are seen to rise after falling through 2014, to 40.0 this month v 34.9 in Dec. The release, however, is overshadowed by the ECB meeting on Thursday. Westpac and the market are both expecting a small improvement in the US NAHB housing market survey, though headwinds persist in the housing market."