22 Jan 2015
Upside risk to tomorrow’s Chinese HSBC manufacturing PMI release - ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at ING feels that December’s large increase in Chinese shadow bank credit imparts upside risk to the HSBC flash manufacturing PMI data to be released tomorrow.
Key Quotes
“The HSBC/Markit flash manufacturing PMI for January is due tomorrow at 10.30am local time. The index hit a 7-molnth low of 49.6 in December and the consensus forecast has it down 0.1 point to 49.5 in January. January seasonally is a weak month for the manufacturing PMIs and sequential industrial production growth.”
“The HSBC and the official manufacturing PMIs have been bouncing around the 50 threshold level since 2012. We agree with the conventional wisdom that ascribes the wider fluctuations in the HSBC index to a greater weight of SME’s, which are more sensitive to macro policy than SOEs, many of which face soft budget constraints.”
“We think December’s large increase in shadow bank credit imparts upside risk to tomorrow’s data.”
Key Quotes
“The HSBC/Markit flash manufacturing PMI for January is due tomorrow at 10.30am local time. The index hit a 7-molnth low of 49.6 in December and the consensus forecast has it down 0.1 point to 49.5 in January. January seasonally is a weak month for the manufacturing PMIs and sequential industrial production growth.”
“The HSBC and the official manufacturing PMIs have been bouncing around the 50 threshold level since 2012. We agree with the conventional wisdom that ascribes the wider fluctuations in the HSBC index to a greater weight of SME’s, which are more sensitive to macro policy than SOEs, many of which face soft budget constraints.”
“We think December’s large increase in shadow bank credit imparts upside risk to tomorrow’s data.”