27 Jan 2015
USD/JPY rally remains capped at 118.50/60 – Commerzbank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Karen Jones, Head of Technical Analysis at Commerzbank, notes that USD/JPY continues to stall at the 20 and 55 day moving averages at 118.50/60 and suggests going short on current levels, targeting 115.85 levels.
Key Quotes
“USD/JPY’s rally remains capped by the 20 and 55 day ma at 118.50/60. We remain unable to rule out an extension to the short term downtrend at 119.74, but look for failure there. Below the market key short term support lies at 115.55/50 (Mid December low and the 38.2% retracement).”
“Directly above the market lies the 122.58/123.40 major resistance, this is the location of the 14 year downtrend and the long term Fibonacci retracement. It is also TD resistance on the weekly chart and we note the 13 count on the monthly chart. This is extremely tough resistance.”
“Loss of 115.50 would introduce scope for a retracement towards 113.50/111.55, but currently the Elliott wave count is suggesting that 115.50 will hold.”
“Current Position: Holding small shorts 118.25. Recommended Trade: stop 119.75. Exit 115.85”
“Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Failing at the 122.50/70 region.”
“Medium term (1-3 month): Looking for failure 122.50/123.40 (14 year resistance line and 23.6% retracement of the entire move from 1982).”
Key Quotes
“USD/JPY’s rally remains capped by the 20 and 55 day ma at 118.50/60. We remain unable to rule out an extension to the short term downtrend at 119.74, but look for failure there. Below the market key short term support lies at 115.55/50 (Mid December low and the 38.2% retracement).”
“Directly above the market lies the 122.58/123.40 major resistance, this is the location of the 14 year downtrend and the long term Fibonacci retracement. It is also TD resistance on the weekly chart and we note the 13 count on the monthly chart. This is extremely tough resistance.”
“Loss of 115.50 would introduce scope for a retracement towards 113.50/111.55, but currently the Elliott wave count is suggesting that 115.50 will hold.”
“Current Position: Holding small shorts 118.25. Recommended Trade: stop 119.75. Exit 115.85”
“Shorter term (1-3 weeks): Failing at the 122.50/70 region.”
“Medium term (1-3 month): Looking for failure 122.50/123.40 (14 year resistance line and 23.6% retracement of the entire move from 1982).”