2 Jul 2013
Flash: Investors eye key US payroll figures Friday – Deutsche Bank
FXstreet.com (New York) - According to Macro Strategy Analysts J. Reid and C. Tan at Deutsche Bank, “There are lots to excite investors this week as H2 began with a new era in the UK along with a payroll report that will have the market on tapering.”
However, Independence Day the day before might leave the markets more sparsely populated than usual for such a big release. As we stand, consensus is forecasting a 165k and 175k gain in the headline and private payrolls respectively (vs 175k and 178k previous). The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 7.5% from 7.6%. “A number around this level won't really settle the tapering argument but one notably below or above will certainly lead the arguments fairly aggressively one way or the other.” the analysts add.
So with time running out until the September FOMC, such prints are going to be huge for markets. Other important data releases include today's ISM manufacturing (consensus 50.5) and all the usual equivalent PMI numbers from around the globe. China has kicked off proceedings this morning with an official manufacturing PMI reading for June of 50.1. Though in line with consensus estimates, the result is the lowest in four months. Meanwhile the final HSBC manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2, slightly below a preliminary reading of 48.3 and 1pt below the final May reading of 49.2.
However, Independence Day the day before might leave the markets more sparsely populated than usual for such a big release. As we stand, consensus is forecasting a 165k and 175k gain in the headline and private payrolls respectively (vs 175k and 178k previous). The unemployment rate is expected to tick down to 7.5% from 7.6%. “A number around this level won't really settle the tapering argument but one notably below or above will certainly lead the arguments fairly aggressively one way or the other.” the analysts add.
So with time running out until the September FOMC, such prints are going to be huge for markets. Other important data releases include today's ISM manufacturing (consensus 50.5) and all the usual equivalent PMI numbers from around the globe. China has kicked off proceedings this morning with an official manufacturing PMI reading for June of 50.1. Though in line with consensus estimates, the result is the lowest in four months. Meanwhile the final HSBC manufacturing PMI came in at 48.2, slightly below a preliminary reading of 48.3 and 1pt below the final May reading of 49.2.