11 Feb 2015
Mixed probabilities of any compromise in Eurogroup meeting – Standard Bank
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Standard Bank Team comments that there won’t be any material conclusions in the Eurogroup meeting today, and that the news-flow might look better for now but it is not certain that an aggrement can be found between Greece and the rest of euro members.
Key Quotes
“The Eurogroup meeting today should kick off only later this afternoon and hence any conclusions probably won’t be known until after the US markets have closed and, in all likelihood, Steve Barrow (our G10 FIC Strategist) thinks that there won’t be any material conclusions to speak of.”
“For, while there’s undoubtedly been huge speculation around this meeting – and tomorrow’s EU Heads of State meeting, these still seem to represent the initial sparring between Greece and the EU; not the bare-knuckle fight that might have to ensue in order to get a deal.”
“.. that “sources” yesterday suggested that the Eurogroup will listen to Greek officials today and “hope” to conclude some sort of mechanism to tide Greece over at the next Eurogroup meeting, which is on Monday. Hence, it looks as if the meeting on 16 February will be the crucial one, not today’s.”
“There was also talk yesterday that the EU will allow six months of breathing space for Greece to negotiate its plans but whether this will be in the form of the bridging loan that Syriza wants is still not clear. Markets were lifted by this idea.”
“.. if Greece leaves, or is forced out of EMU, it’s likely to be because this negotiating process sees no agreeable compromise from either side over the next few months.”
“It is unlikely to fail because some sort of negotiating period cannot be agreed first via some sort of bridging loan or extension that stops Greece going to the wall for a few months. This suggests that the news-flow, for now, might look a little better but it is by no means certain that agreement can be found and that Greece can avoid falling out of EMU.”
Key Quotes
“The Eurogroup meeting today should kick off only later this afternoon and hence any conclusions probably won’t be known until after the US markets have closed and, in all likelihood, Steve Barrow (our G10 FIC Strategist) thinks that there won’t be any material conclusions to speak of.”
“For, while there’s undoubtedly been huge speculation around this meeting – and tomorrow’s EU Heads of State meeting, these still seem to represent the initial sparring between Greece and the EU; not the bare-knuckle fight that might have to ensue in order to get a deal.”
“.. that “sources” yesterday suggested that the Eurogroup will listen to Greek officials today and “hope” to conclude some sort of mechanism to tide Greece over at the next Eurogroup meeting, which is on Monday. Hence, it looks as if the meeting on 16 February will be the crucial one, not today’s.”
“There was also talk yesterday that the EU will allow six months of breathing space for Greece to negotiate its plans but whether this will be in the form of the bridging loan that Syriza wants is still not clear. Markets were lifted by this idea.”
“.. if Greece leaves, or is forced out of EMU, it’s likely to be because this negotiating process sees no agreeable compromise from either side over the next few months.”
“It is unlikely to fail because some sort of negotiating period cannot be agreed first via some sort of bridging loan or extension that stops Greece going to the wall for a few months. This suggests that the news-flow, for now, might look a little better but it is by no means certain that agreement can be found and that Greece can avoid falling out of EMU.”