13 Feb 2015
UK CPI may fall to an all-time low of 0.3% yoy in January – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ross Walker, Senior UK Economist at RBS, gives the forecast for January’s UK CPI inflation, viewing that the fall in energy prices along with food and the core components will aid the CPI to print an all-time low figure of 0.3% yoy.
Key Quotes
“UK CPI inflation is forecast to fall to an all-time low of 0.3% (y/y) in January.”
“Although energy was the main driver of the latest fall – and will be the dominant influence over the next few months – this should not obscure the more broad-based nature of the UK’s disinflation (eg, since the recent peak at 2.9% in June 2013, energy, food and the core components have made roughly equal one-third contributions).”
“Disinflationary pipeline pressures will remain in evidence in the latest PPI data with lower wholesale energy prices working their way through to the factory gate, so we are unlikely to reach the trough in CPI inflation until around the middle of this year.”
Key Quotes
“UK CPI inflation is forecast to fall to an all-time low of 0.3% (y/y) in January.”
“Although energy was the main driver of the latest fall – and will be the dominant influence over the next few months – this should not obscure the more broad-based nature of the UK’s disinflation (eg, since the recent peak at 2.9% in June 2013, energy, food and the core components have made roughly equal one-third contributions).”
“Disinflationary pipeline pressures will remain in evidence in the latest PPI data with lower wholesale energy prices working their way through to the factory gate, so we are unlikely to reach the trough in CPI inflation until around the middle of this year.”