UK labour market data are likely to be sterling-supportive – SG

According to Societe Generale, UK might see a 25k fall in unemployment, with average weekly earnings expected to tick up to 1.8% yoy, further adding that the upbeat jobs report might lead GBP to register gains.

Key Quotes

“SG economists look for a 25,000 fall in unemployment, while the ILO unemployment rate stays at 5.8%. More importantly, we look for another tick up in average weekly earnings to 1.8% y/y, 1.9% ex-bonuses.”

“After yesterday's CPI data, that takes real wage growth to pre-GFC levels. GBP/USD should tick higher.”

“MPC Minutes are also due but aren't likely to have any impact.”