5 Mar 2015
US NFP might see a 260k gain, push Fed for a June hike – ING
FXStreet (Barcelona) - James Knightley, Senior Economist at ING, expects US payrolls to register an above consensus print at 260k, and unemployment rate to dip, which would push Fed to hike rates in June and push EUR/USD towards parity by year-end.
Key Quotes
“Tomorrow’s Labour Report has the usual caveat attached – anything can happen. The range of forecasts supplied to the consensus surveys by 90 economists is as wide as ever with Bloomberg reporting a low prediction of 150,000 while the highest prediction is for a gain of 375,000. For once the mean and the median forecasts match at 235,000.”
“For choice, we suspect that it will be a little stronger than that given the health of the NFIB employment numbers, the ISM non-manufacturing employment component and a respectable ADP private payrolls survey. Meanwhile, labour market turnover appears to be picking up while jobless claims remain low.”
“The only disappointment was the manufacturing ISM employment number, which is likely to be weather affected.”
“Consequently, for what it is worth, we are predicting a 260,000 gain – stronger than the consensus, but not meaningfully.”
“We look for the unemployment rate to edge back down to 5.6% after last month’s surprise increase”
“If we are right in predicting a decent payrolls rise, a dip in unemployment and a further pick-up in pay, the story would be consistent with our view that the Federal Reserve will start hiking rates in June. In turn this feeds through into our EUR/USD target of 1.00 for the end of this year.”
Key Quotes
“Tomorrow’s Labour Report has the usual caveat attached – anything can happen. The range of forecasts supplied to the consensus surveys by 90 economists is as wide as ever with Bloomberg reporting a low prediction of 150,000 while the highest prediction is for a gain of 375,000. For once the mean and the median forecasts match at 235,000.”
“For choice, we suspect that it will be a little stronger than that given the health of the NFIB employment numbers, the ISM non-manufacturing employment component and a respectable ADP private payrolls survey. Meanwhile, labour market turnover appears to be picking up while jobless claims remain low.”
“The only disappointment was the manufacturing ISM employment number, which is likely to be weather affected.”
“Consequently, for what it is worth, we are predicting a 260,000 gain – stronger than the consensus, but not meaningfully.”
“We look for the unemployment rate to edge back down to 5.6% after last month’s surprise increase”
“If we are right in predicting a decent payrolls rise, a dip in unemployment and a further pick-up in pay, the story would be consistent with our view that the Federal Reserve will start hiking rates in June. In turn this feeds through into our EUR/USD target of 1.00 for the end of this year.”