5 Mar 2015
AUD/USD: Further rate cuts priced in for April?
FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7776 with a high of 0.7842 and a low of 0.7772.
AUD/USD is suffering to the downside and has lost the 0.78 handle with a move from 0.7820 resistance area. However, whether there is much more room to the downside at this stage, with the majority of the market that feels the RBA will be making further moves may have made their own moves already and a cut in April could have already been priced in.
Analysts at Westpac Banking Corporaton explained that in the RBA's statement, it was told there that, “Further easing of policy may be appropriate”, while rates were kept steady at this meeting, “for the time being”. Their analysts observes that this phrase has been used 8 times over the past 5 years, with a change in rates being delivered within 2 months on all 8 occasions.
It was also noted that RBA’s Lowe conceded that the Aussie is now a lot closer to fair value than it has been for some years. "Risks still seem to the downside for AUD in the month ahead but we switch back to neutral on the week."
Technically, however, Karen Jones at Commerzbank, explained that the AUD/USD remains capped by its downtrend at 0.7883 and for now it will maintain a negative bias. "The market failed at this downtrend last week and charted an outside day to the downside which suggests that we are likely to see the resumption of downside pressure."
AUD/USD is suffering to the downside and has lost the 0.78 handle with a move from 0.7820 resistance area. However, whether there is much more room to the downside at this stage, with the majority of the market that feels the RBA will be making further moves may have made their own moves already and a cut in April could have already been priced in.
Analysts at Westpac Banking Corporaton explained that in the RBA's statement, it was told there that, “Further easing of policy may be appropriate”, while rates were kept steady at this meeting, “for the time being”. Their analysts observes that this phrase has been used 8 times over the past 5 years, with a change in rates being delivered within 2 months on all 8 occasions.
It was also noted that RBA’s Lowe conceded that the Aussie is now a lot closer to fair value than it has been for some years. "Risks still seem to the downside for AUD in the month ahead but we switch back to neutral on the week."
Technically, however, Karen Jones at Commerzbank, explained that the AUD/USD remains capped by its downtrend at 0.7883 and for now it will maintain a negative bias. "The market failed at this downtrend last week and charted an outside day to the downside which suggests that we are likely to see the resumption of downside pressure."