6 Mar 2015
Will weather weigh on February’s US employment? – DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Economists at Deutsche Bank explain that February’s nonfarm payrolls might have dodged the worst of the weather related disruptions as the recent employment survey suggests that jobless claims plunged.
Key Quotes
“Inclement weather over the past month, which has coincided with unseasonably cold temperatures across much of the country, could have been a factor weighing on economic activity over the past few weeks.”
“Additionally, the recently settled West Coast port labor dispute has probably been a negative factor weighing on production and measured economic output—we estimate that the port slowdown cost the economy one full percentage point on Q4 2014 real GDP growth.”
“The February manufacturing ISM survey softened, unit motor vehicle sales sunk and jobless claims recently spiked to well above 300k.”
“However, February nonfarm payrolls may have dodged the worst of the recent weather disruptions because during the February employment survey week, jobless claims plunged. They stood at 282k, which was down 27k compared to the January payroll survey period (309k).”
“The four-week moving average for the February survey week was lower, as well (283k versus 307k in January). In fact, the four-week average on initial jobless claims was the third lowest this past February for a payroll survey week going back to April 2000. That was not the case this time last year, when repeated weather-related issues kept jobless claims elevated, and the initial reading on February 2014 nonfarm payrolls was 175k.”
“With January 2015 nonfarm payrolls having risen 257k, a reading of 250k on February is arguably conservative.”
Key Quotes
“Inclement weather over the past month, which has coincided with unseasonably cold temperatures across much of the country, could have been a factor weighing on economic activity over the past few weeks.”
“Additionally, the recently settled West Coast port labor dispute has probably been a negative factor weighing on production and measured economic output—we estimate that the port slowdown cost the economy one full percentage point on Q4 2014 real GDP growth.”
“The February manufacturing ISM survey softened, unit motor vehicle sales sunk and jobless claims recently spiked to well above 300k.”
“However, February nonfarm payrolls may have dodged the worst of the recent weather disruptions because during the February employment survey week, jobless claims plunged. They stood at 282k, which was down 27k compared to the January payroll survey period (309k).”
“The four-week moving average for the February survey week was lower, as well (283k versus 307k in January). In fact, the four-week average on initial jobless claims was the third lowest this past February for a payroll survey week going back to April 2000. That was not the case this time last year, when repeated weather-related issues kept jobless claims elevated, and the initial reading on February 2014 nonfarm payrolls was 175k.”
“With January 2015 nonfarm payrolls having risen 257k, a reading of 250k on February is arguably conservative.”