6 Mar 2015
EUR/SEK below 9.000 in a 12-month view – Danske Bank
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Analysts at Danske Bank see the cross marching towards the 8.90 zone in a year’s time, backed by the strong prospects for the krona.
Key Quotes
“The near-term outlook for EUR/SEK is in the hands of the ECB and the Riksbank. EUR/SEK trades heavily ahead of ECB QE but any backfiring by the trigger happy Riksbank would send it higher again”.
“The Swedish growth outlook has improved and we raise our GDP forecast for 2015 from 1.6 to 2.1%. A better macro backdrop reduces the upside potential in EUR/SEK short term and set a better stage for a medium-term rebound in the krona”.
“A shift in the correlation between the exchange rate and foreign equities, stretched SEK levels and regulatory factors suggest that Swedish portfolio managers are getting closer to a point where they start reducing currency exposures”.
“On balance, upside risks in EUR/SEK have, in our view, diminished over the past few weeks, while downside potential has increased. We choose to revise our forecast profile to 9.30 in 1M, 9.20 in 3M, 9.10 in 6M and 8.90 in 12M”.
Key Quotes
“The near-term outlook for EUR/SEK is in the hands of the ECB and the Riksbank. EUR/SEK trades heavily ahead of ECB QE but any backfiring by the trigger happy Riksbank would send it higher again”.
“The Swedish growth outlook has improved and we raise our GDP forecast for 2015 from 1.6 to 2.1%. A better macro backdrop reduces the upside potential in EUR/SEK short term and set a better stage for a medium-term rebound in the krona”.
“A shift in the correlation between the exchange rate and foreign equities, stretched SEK levels and regulatory factors suggest that Swedish portfolio managers are getting closer to a point where they start reducing currency exposures”.
“On balance, upside risks in EUR/SEK have, in our view, diminished over the past few weeks, while downside potential has increased. We choose to revise our forecast profile to 9.30 in 1M, 9.20 in 3M, 9.10 in 6M and 8.90 in 12M”.