20 Mar 2015
Bullish outlook for US treasuries – RBS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - John Briggs, Head of Cross Asset Strategy at RBS, gives the technical outlook for 2s4s10s US treasuries, maintaining a bullish view.
Key Quotes
“Lastly, on the subject of technicals, for US 10yr notes daily momentum is bullish and not yet overbought, weekly momentum is bearish and looking a bit mixed, while the monthlies are bullish but overbought.”
“A conflicting mix, against reinforcing that one should be careful at the range extremes still.”
“The weeklies and monthlies signal a pre-disposition to sell rallies, though not quite yet (better to wait a bit for dailies to line up).”
“The technical for 2s5s10s line up better (bullish belly), with all three time horizons aiming bullishly, so we stick with that as our favored call.”
“2s (0.64%)- Next major support doesn't emerge until ~0.80% where we found buyers back in the spring of 2011. Resistance seen at 0.40% where we'd close a gap left behind in late October. Daily momentum is bullish.”
“5s (1.47%)- Next major support comes in at 1.80% and just above. Next resistance begins at ~1.30% and extends down to major resistance at 1.15%. Daily momentum is bullish and showing evidence of bullish divergence.”
“10s (1.962%)-Next resistance comes in some congestion in and around 1.80% then the low yields of 1.64%. Next support comes in ~2.40% with major support at 2.66% after that. Daily momentum is bullish and showing bullish divergence.”
Key Quotes
“Lastly, on the subject of technicals, for US 10yr notes daily momentum is bullish and not yet overbought, weekly momentum is bearish and looking a bit mixed, while the monthlies are bullish but overbought.”
“A conflicting mix, against reinforcing that one should be careful at the range extremes still.”
“The weeklies and monthlies signal a pre-disposition to sell rallies, though not quite yet (better to wait a bit for dailies to line up).”
“The technical for 2s5s10s line up better (bullish belly), with all three time horizons aiming bullishly, so we stick with that as our favored call.”
“2s (0.64%)- Next major support doesn't emerge until ~0.80% where we found buyers back in the spring of 2011. Resistance seen at 0.40% where we'd close a gap left behind in late October. Daily momentum is bullish.”
“5s (1.47%)- Next major support comes in at 1.80% and just above. Next resistance begins at ~1.30% and extends down to major resistance at 1.15%. Daily momentum is bullish and showing evidence of bullish divergence.”
“10s (1.962%)-Next resistance comes in some congestion in and around 1.80% then the low yields of 1.64%. Next support comes in ~2.40% with major support at 2.66% after that. Daily momentum is bullish and showing bullish divergence.”