23 Mar 2015
AUD/USD: Recovery could a bit more in it - FXCharts
FXStreet (Bali) - Jim Langlands, Founder at FXCharts, suspects that further upside might be in store for AUD/USD near term, however, his overall view still looks for levels to sell higher in line with the underlying downtrend.
Key Quotes
"This week will be driven by international flows, largely on the back of the US data due to be released in the next few days, stating with tomorrows CPI."
"Technically, the indicators do suggest that the recovery could have a bit more in it, and a retest of 0.7800 would not now surprise. Above here would see a further squeeze towards last week’s spike to 0.7846, beyond which would suggest a run towards 0.7900 and the 26 Feb 0.7912. Beyond here would see a bigger squeeze, with the potential to revisit the Fibo resistance at 0.8010 (61.8% of 0.8294/0.7559), although it is too early to think of it at this stage."
"Although it does currently look bid, from these levels it is hard to see too much upside for the Aud unless there is another major selloff in the US$ and Friday’s close, right on the 100 Month MA at 0.7775 may well continue to act as pivot for a while to come."
"The RBA want the currency lower and a rate hike appears to be on the way in May, if not April, with the only impediment seeming to be the overheated real estate sector. The Iron Ore price (which accounts for every $1 in $5 export dollars) appears headed for US$50 pt (currently around US$54 pt) and possibly lower, putting material pressure on the GDP, and with unemployment probably trending higher, a (substantially) lower Aud$ would appear to be on its way in the months ahead."
"The plan seems to be for the Aud to be headed a bit higher in the near term although I still prefer to look for levels to sell it for the longer term decline that I think we are going to see over the next few months."
Key Quotes
"This week will be driven by international flows, largely on the back of the US data due to be released in the next few days, stating with tomorrows CPI."
"Technically, the indicators do suggest that the recovery could have a bit more in it, and a retest of 0.7800 would not now surprise. Above here would see a further squeeze towards last week’s spike to 0.7846, beyond which would suggest a run towards 0.7900 and the 26 Feb 0.7912. Beyond here would see a bigger squeeze, with the potential to revisit the Fibo resistance at 0.8010 (61.8% of 0.8294/0.7559), although it is too early to think of it at this stage."
"Although it does currently look bid, from these levels it is hard to see too much upside for the Aud unless there is another major selloff in the US$ and Friday’s close, right on the 100 Month MA at 0.7775 may well continue to act as pivot for a while to come."
"The RBA want the currency lower and a rate hike appears to be on the way in May, if not April, with the only impediment seeming to be the overheated real estate sector. The Iron Ore price (which accounts for every $1 in $5 export dollars) appears headed for US$50 pt (currently around US$54 pt) and possibly lower, putting material pressure on the GDP, and with unemployment probably trending higher, a (substantially) lower Aud$ would appear to be on its way in the months ahead."
"The plan seems to be for the Aud to be headed a bit higher in the near term although I still prefer to look for levels to sell it for the longer term decline that I think we are going to see over the next few months."