30 Mar 2015
USD/CAD might rise to 1.31 in Q3 – BAML
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Ian Gordon, FX Strategist at BofA-Merrill Lynch, expects policy differential between the BoC and Fed to drag USD/CAD higher towards 1.31 in Q3 2015.
Key Quotes
“We see USD-CAD rising to 1.31 in Q3 before ending the year at 1.30.”
“We continue to believe CAD will remain under pressure as oil prices will stay low (based on BofAML forecasts), and the risk management approach of the BoC pushes it in the direction of an easing bias. Contrasted with a September Fed rate hike, policy differentials will pressure CAD lower.”
“Risks: modest downside risks CAD’s lower sensitivity to oil could keep it range bound until the second round economic impacts are felt.”
“In addition, a continued optimistic BoC tone could push out BoC cuts further while the Fed’s renewed focus on low inflation could suggests their first cut will not come until at least September, in our view.”
Key Quotes
“We see USD-CAD rising to 1.31 in Q3 before ending the year at 1.30.”
“We continue to believe CAD will remain under pressure as oil prices will stay low (based on BofAML forecasts), and the risk management approach of the BoC pushes it in the direction of an easing bias. Contrasted with a September Fed rate hike, policy differentials will pressure CAD lower.”
“Risks: modest downside risks CAD’s lower sensitivity to oil could keep it range bound until the second round economic impacts are felt.”
“In addition, a continued optimistic BoC tone could push out BoC cuts further while the Fed’s renewed focus on low inflation could suggests their first cut will not come until at least September, in our view.”