Consensus is for $20 bn 'Septaper'; U.S. Dollar has room to rally

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - The market has been increasing its bets for a 'price out' of a Fed taper in September, as exemplified by the poor U.S. Dollar performance in recent weeks.

However, in a report put out by ZeroHedge recently, using data collected by MNI services, consensus on 'when and how much' to taper appears to be for September starting with around $20 billion in initial reduction.

As a matter of fact, if large institutions happen to be accurate on their forecast, it suggests that the market may start pricing back again 'Septaper', which implies great risks to the upside on the U.S. Dollar.

Current view by bank - ZeroHedge, MNI

Goldman - Sept taper, - $20b in Tsys
JPMorgan - Sept taper
Credit Susse - Sept taper, -$20b via -$10b MBS and -$10b Tsys
BNP - Dec taper w Sept'14 ending; - $10b ea Tsys/MBS; poss less MBS/more UST's
Barclays - Sept taper of - $10b Tsys/- $5b MBS, end buys in Mar'14
Bank of America - Dec taper but 'sizable chance' of Sept
Deutsche Bank - Sept taper, risk of Dec
Pierpont- Sept taper;
BMO - Sept taper;
RBC - Sept taper likely
Citi- Sept announce, start taper with Oct 1 buys to $60-65b, stop in mid'14
ING - Sept taper in Tsys;
BTM-UFJ - Sept taper
ScotiaBank - Dec taper
Jefferies - Oct announce taper, go to smaller buys in Nov
Nomura - Sept announce taper, begin taper in Q4
Cantor Fitzgerald -first taper in Sept, of Tsys -$10B and MBS -$5B