3 Apr 2015
Citi: Payrolls might print a 220k figure, USD vulnerable – eFXnews
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The eFXnews Team notes Citi Group forecasts the US NFP to print a 220k result, and further suggest that USD/JPY might remain the trade into a soft number.
Key Quotes
“Our view that nonfarm payrolls will post a moderate increase for the month. We expect private payrolls to rise by about 220K, which is below consensus of 250K.”
“Nevertheless, we would view a gain in that range as healthy, despite the significant downshift from the 285K trend in the past six months.”
“We anticipate a softer employment reading in March because the weather remained winter-like and seasonal factors expect raw data in a number of sectors to improve substantially. Given the weather and this difficult hurdle from seasonal factors, we doubt the prior big gains persisted.”
“CitiFX Strategy is going into the event thinking the USD is more vulnerable to the downside because
1) market still long USD;
2) weak outcome will confirm emerging fears that Q1 slowdown was not an aberration;
3) one strong number unlikely to convince investors that June is live;
4) Citi’s weak forecast looks more in line with mixed labor data precursors than the consensus optimism.”
“If a weak outcome generates fears of a more pronounced slowdown, USDJPY downside is likely to be the trade; CADJPY downside if it adds to downward pressure on energy prices.”
Key Quotes
“Our view that nonfarm payrolls will post a moderate increase for the month. We expect private payrolls to rise by about 220K, which is below consensus of 250K.”
“Nevertheless, we would view a gain in that range as healthy, despite the significant downshift from the 285K trend in the past six months.”
“We anticipate a softer employment reading in March because the weather remained winter-like and seasonal factors expect raw data in a number of sectors to improve substantially. Given the weather and this difficult hurdle from seasonal factors, we doubt the prior big gains persisted.”
“CitiFX Strategy is going into the event thinking the USD is more vulnerable to the downside because
1) market still long USD;
2) weak outcome will confirm emerging fears that Q1 slowdown was not an aberration;
3) one strong number unlikely to convince investors that June is live;
4) Citi’s weak forecast looks more in line with mixed labor data precursors than the consensus optimism.”
“If a weak outcome generates fears of a more pronounced slowdown, USDJPY downside is likely to be the trade; CADJPY downside if it adds to downward pressure on energy prices.”