30 Apr 2015
Key events for the day ahead - Rabobank
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analyst at Rabobank noted the key events for the day ahead.
Key Quotes:
"This morning has seen an upside surprise in Japanese industrial production (-0.3% MoM vs. -2.3% consensus) ahead of the BOJ decision later in the day. There is still chatter that we might see a further increase in QE of up to JPY10 trillion (USD84 billion), or even a token rate cut in the deposit rate, but the majority of analysts are expecting no change: we stick with the view that further easing is inevitable, with the question being “when” not “if”.
"Next we see Aussie import and export prices, as well as private sector credit: but the market will be thinking more of the RBA than those data points. (And what will the RBA be thinking of?)."
"German retail sales (consensus: 0.5% MoM) and unemployment (consensus: -15K) are also out, as is the Eurozone CPI estimate for April, expected 0.0% YoY, and so officially flagging the end of deflation, along with the Eurozone unemployment rate. As such, EUR and Bund yields could get a further lift, especially with May Day holidays looming in many markets tomorrow."
"Meanwhile, in the US we have the Fed’s Tarullo speaking, and personal income and spending for March (the impact of which could have an immediate impact on revisions to Q1 GDP just released). The expectation is for income to rise 0.5% MoM and spending to rise 0.2% MoM, while the core deflator is seen unchanged at 1.4% YoY. Perhaps more importantly, we also have the Chicago PMI, which collapsed to 46.3 in March. The April expectation is a recovery back to 50.0, and that would certainly be a key indicator that the Q1 US slump was an aberration and not a trend: anything otherwise could see the Fed, and Europe, crying “Mayday! Mayday!” for all the wrong reasons ahead of tomorrow."
Key Quotes:
"This morning has seen an upside surprise in Japanese industrial production (-0.3% MoM vs. -2.3% consensus) ahead of the BOJ decision later in the day. There is still chatter that we might see a further increase in QE of up to JPY10 trillion (USD84 billion), or even a token rate cut in the deposit rate, but the majority of analysts are expecting no change: we stick with the view that further easing is inevitable, with the question being “when” not “if”.
"Next we see Aussie import and export prices, as well as private sector credit: but the market will be thinking more of the RBA than those data points. (And what will the RBA be thinking of?)."
"German retail sales (consensus: 0.5% MoM) and unemployment (consensus: -15K) are also out, as is the Eurozone CPI estimate for April, expected 0.0% YoY, and so officially flagging the end of deflation, along with the Eurozone unemployment rate. As such, EUR and Bund yields could get a further lift, especially with May Day holidays looming in many markets tomorrow."
"Meanwhile, in the US we have the Fed’s Tarullo speaking, and personal income and spending for March (the impact of which could have an immediate impact on revisions to Q1 GDP just released). The expectation is for income to rise 0.5% MoM and spending to rise 0.2% MoM, while the core deflator is seen unchanged at 1.4% YoY. Perhaps more importantly, we also have the Chicago PMI, which collapsed to 46.3 in March. The April expectation is a recovery back to 50.0, and that would certainly be a key indicator that the Q1 US slump was an aberration and not a trend: anything otherwise could see the Fed, and Europe, crying “Mayday! Mayday!” for all the wrong reasons ahead of tomorrow."