30 Apr 2015
Dollar decline to slow as the Fed is off the radar? – KBC
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The KBC Bank Research Team, expects dollar’s losses to remain capped and see room for a rebound in a daily perspective.
Key Quotes
“Over the previous days, the dollar was on the defensive especially against the euro. Investors reduced USD long positions as they anticipated a poor US Q1 GDP report and a soft Fed assessment.”
“The prepositioning was justified by the facts. EUR/USD broke above the .1052/(98) resistance area. From technical point of view, this is an important warning signal for dollar longs. The trade-weighted dollar dropped also below the high profile 96.17 support level, painting a multiple top configuration on the charts. So, the technical picture for the dollar clearly deteriorated.”
“For EUR/USD, 1.1534 (early February top is the next high profile reference on the charts). Even as the MT technical picture turned less USD positive, we don’t have the impression that the dollar is already ripe for further follow-through losses right now.”
“If the US eco data stop surprising on the downside/surprise on the upside, there might even by room for a USD rebound in a daily perspective.”
“Over the previous days , the rise in core bond yields supported the dollar more than the euro. This is also far from evident that this pattern will continue. So, we turn more neutral on the USD a MT perspective.”
“The dollar needs better data for a sustained comeback. In a daily perspective we expect the dollar decline the halt. ECB QE and the negative deposit rate remain a structural cap on the upside potential of the euro, too.”
Key Quotes
“Over the previous days, the dollar was on the defensive especially against the euro. Investors reduced USD long positions as they anticipated a poor US Q1 GDP report and a soft Fed assessment.”
“The prepositioning was justified by the facts. EUR/USD broke above the .1052/(98) resistance area. From technical point of view, this is an important warning signal for dollar longs. The trade-weighted dollar dropped also below the high profile 96.17 support level, painting a multiple top configuration on the charts. So, the technical picture for the dollar clearly deteriorated.”
“For EUR/USD, 1.1534 (early February top is the next high profile reference on the charts). Even as the MT technical picture turned less USD positive, we don’t have the impression that the dollar is already ripe for further follow-through losses right now.”
“If the US eco data stop surprising on the downside/surprise on the upside, there might even by room for a USD rebound in a daily perspective.”
“Over the previous days , the rise in core bond yields supported the dollar more than the euro. This is also far from evident that this pattern will continue. So, we turn more neutral on the USD a MT perspective.”
“The dollar needs better data for a sustained comeback. In a daily perspective we expect the dollar decline the halt. ECB QE and the negative deposit rate remain a structural cap on the upside potential of the euro, too.”