30 Apr 2015
AUD/USD negative bias – Westpac
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at Westpac maintains a negative bias on AUD/USD, anticipating a move lower towards 0.78 levels over a 1-month view.
Key Quotes
“AUD/USD has been notably stronger than we expected in recent days but without removing the downside risks over the month ahead. The most obvious threat to the bullish AUD story near term is our view that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 2.0% on Tue, an outcome only about 60% priced.”
“Even if the statement doesn’t include an overt easing bias, any relief for AUD could be tempered by the SoMP on 8 May.”
“The iron ore rally is also likely to fade as underlying supply remains ample. Chartists will be impressed by AUD/USD’s monthly close, eyeing the 0.82 handle of mid-Jan.”
“But fundamentally, we see the overall bias lower, albeit perhaps only after the RBA meeting. We raise our one month target to 0.78.”
Key Quotes
“AUD/USD has been notably stronger than we expected in recent days but without removing the downside risks over the month ahead. The most obvious threat to the bullish AUD story near term is our view that the RBA will cut the cash rate to 2.0% on Tue, an outcome only about 60% priced.”
“Even if the statement doesn’t include an overt easing bias, any relief for AUD could be tempered by the SoMP on 8 May.”
“The iron ore rally is also likely to fade as underlying supply remains ample. Chartists will be impressed by AUD/USD’s monthly close, eyeing the 0.82 handle of mid-Jan.”
“But fundamentally, we see the overall bias lower, albeit perhaps only after the RBA meeting. We raise our one month target to 0.78.”