1 May 2015
UK election betting odds: Conservative government odds on favorite – TDS
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The TD Securities Research Team shares they key developments UK elections betting markets, noting that the final UK debate last night resulted in some interesting shifts in betting odds.
Key Quotes
“The final UK debate last night has led to some very significant shifts in the general election betting odds.”
“The probability of a Conservative-led government as implied by the betting odds is now more likely than a Labour-led government for the first time since 15 April.”
“As we noted, the shifts in government odds have tended to lead shifts in the PM betting, with odds of Miliband as the next PM falling from 60% to only 53%.”
“We also saw matched bets in the over/under market for Labour seats double in the last day, and for the first time suggests Labour will win fewer than 266 seats.”
“The probability of two elections in 2015 has risen to 27%, the highest so far, pulling vol higher, though moderated by improved odds of a Conservative win.”
“Within our sample of marginal constituencies, however, while Conservatives still seem to hold the edge, there has been slightly more momentum in favour of Labour, with Conservatives ahead by only one point in Pudsey and Halesowen and Rowley Regis.”
Key Quotes
“The final UK debate last night has led to some very significant shifts in the general election betting odds.”
“The probability of a Conservative-led government as implied by the betting odds is now more likely than a Labour-led government for the first time since 15 April.”
“As we noted, the shifts in government odds have tended to lead shifts in the PM betting, with odds of Miliband as the next PM falling from 60% to only 53%.”
“We also saw matched bets in the over/under market for Labour seats double in the last day, and for the first time suggests Labour will win fewer than 266 seats.”
“The probability of two elections in 2015 has risen to 27%, the highest so far, pulling vol higher, though moderated by improved odds of a Conservative win.”
“Within our sample of marginal constituencies, however, while Conservatives still seem to hold the edge, there has been slightly more momentum in favour of Labour, with Conservatives ahead by only one point in Pudsey and Halesowen and Rowley Regis.”