8 May 2015
US NFP expected to see a 230k gain – UOB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - The Research Team at UOB Group, previews the key employment data releases ahead in the US, noting that the nonfarm payrolls report today will likely swing market expectations for a Fed hike.
Key Quotes
“The key US data event will definitely be today’s (8 May) April US Labor Report which could swing market expectations for Fed Reserve’s future course of interest rate actions. We got an early glimpse of the state of the US labor market on Wednesday (6 May) with the release of the ADP employment report which may show the US just 169,000 new jobs in April (a 15-month low and also below the Bloomberg consensus forecast for 200,000) while March’s job creation was also revised lower to 175,000 (from the 189,000 increase reported previously), adding to the gloom on the US labor market outlook.”
“The NFP is likely to add 230,000 jobs in April (according to the latest Bloomberg forecasts as of 7 May 2015), markedly higher from last month’s 126,000 and in line with the more than 200,000 monthly read we were used to.”
“On the back of the positive payrolls, markets expect the US April unemployment rate to edge lower to 5.4% (from 5.5%). If we do get a surprisingly strong NFP (>300,000) and/or a marked improvement in unemployment rate, this may re-ignite expectations that the Fed may start to normalize interest rates earlier rather than later and send the dollar soaring again.”
Key Quotes
“The key US data event will definitely be today’s (8 May) April US Labor Report which could swing market expectations for Fed Reserve’s future course of interest rate actions. We got an early glimpse of the state of the US labor market on Wednesday (6 May) with the release of the ADP employment report which may show the US just 169,000 new jobs in April (a 15-month low and also below the Bloomberg consensus forecast for 200,000) while March’s job creation was also revised lower to 175,000 (from the 189,000 increase reported previously), adding to the gloom on the US labor market outlook.”
“The NFP is likely to add 230,000 jobs in April (according to the latest Bloomberg forecasts as of 7 May 2015), markedly higher from last month’s 126,000 and in line with the more than 200,000 monthly read we were used to.”
“On the back of the positive payrolls, markets expect the US April unemployment rate to edge lower to 5.4% (from 5.5%). If we do get a surprisingly strong NFP (>300,000) and/or a marked improvement in unemployment rate, this may re-ignite expectations that the Fed may start to normalize interest rates earlier rather than later and send the dollar soaring again.”