13 May 2015
Key events for the day ahead - Westpac
FXStreet (Bali) - Sean Callow, FX Strategist at Westpac, breaks down the key events for the day ahead, with investors to pay especial attention to the US retail sales to convince investors that the recovery is back.
Key Quotes
Westpac’s forecast for the Australia Q1 wage cost index is 0.6%q/q, in line with consensus (11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK). The previous print was also 0.6% as well, and at an annualised pace of 2.5%, was on par with the series low. While the labour market has improved through 2014 and into 2015, wages have underperformed. This suggests that the pace of wage inflation is unlikely to pick up in the near term and risks are to the downside.
Market median for China Apr industrial production (3:30pm Syd/1:30pm Sing/HK) is for a rise to 6.0%y/y from 5.6%.The PMI prints have not been encouraging. We will also see China Apr retail sales and fixed investment.
In Europe we will see French and German Q1 GDP ahead of the Q1 Eurozone aggregate estimate. Eurozone growth is expected to print at 0.4% after early figures show Spanish GDP accelerated. Lower oil prices and the weaker euro should be supportive.
The UK labour market is expected to continue to show signs of improvement. Apr employment is expected to fall to 5.5%, with employment rising another 225k and jobless claims falling 20k. The BoE inflation report will also be released. Governor Carney will speak at a press conference on the quarterly report, the first comments on monetary policy in over a month, after a silent period during the UK elections.
The US data focus is Apr retail sales, with consensus for a strong reading after a disappointing Q1. Total sales are seen up 0.2%, 0.5% ex-autos & gasoline and 0.5% on the control group which matches PCE.
Key Quotes
Westpac’s forecast for the Australia Q1 wage cost index is 0.6%q/q, in line with consensus (11:30am Syd/9:30am Sing/HK). The previous print was also 0.6% as well, and at an annualised pace of 2.5%, was on par with the series low. While the labour market has improved through 2014 and into 2015, wages have underperformed. This suggests that the pace of wage inflation is unlikely to pick up in the near term and risks are to the downside.
Market median for China Apr industrial production (3:30pm Syd/1:30pm Sing/HK) is for a rise to 6.0%y/y from 5.6%.The PMI prints have not been encouraging. We will also see China Apr retail sales and fixed investment.
In Europe we will see French and German Q1 GDP ahead of the Q1 Eurozone aggregate estimate. Eurozone growth is expected to print at 0.4% after early figures show Spanish GDP accelerated. Lower oil prices and the weaker euro should be supportive.
The UK labour market is expected to continue to show signs of improvement. Apr employment is expected to fall to 5.5%, with employment rising another 225k and jobless claims falling 20k. The BoE inflation report will also be released. Governor Carney will speak at a press conference on the quarterly report, the first comments on monetary policy in over a month, after a silent period during the UK elections.
The US data focus is Apr retail sales, with consensus for a strong reading after a disappointing Q1. Total sales are seen up 0.2%, 0.5% ex-autos & gasoline and 0.5% on the control group which matches PCE.