5 Jun 2015
Nonfarm Payrolls forecast above consensus - RBS
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Brian Daingerfield FX Trading Strategist at RBS offered the Trading Desk Economics colleagues forecast on nonfarm payrolls growth for later tonight of 245K in May, above 226K consensus.
Key Quotes:
"They expect average hourly earnings growth to rise from 2.2% to 2.3% y/y. While still below levels Fed Chair Yellen considers normal, a 2.3% y/y rise in average hourly earnings would match the largest y/y increase since 2009. They expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.4%."
"Stronger-than-expected employment should keep the Fed on pace to hike the Fed Funds rate in September, and pulling forward of expectations could support the USD. A stronger USD and pulled-forward rate hike expectations could pressure commodity prices and weigh on commodity exporter currencies."
"The quick re-acceleration of the EUR positioning squeeze in recent days suggests EUR short positions remain entrenched, and the EUR could be an out-performer if weak payrolls puts the US economic and monetary policy divergence narrative under pressure."
"With officials suggesting they are keeping an eye on FX developments in Japan, JPY may strengthen on weak payrolls as well."
Coverage of Nonfarm Payrolls:
Tonight, you can follow all of the action with us here.
Key Quotes:
"They expect average hourly earnings growth to rise from 2.2% to 2.3% y/y. While still below levels Fed Chair Yellen considers normal, a 2.3% y/y rise in average hourly earnings would match the largest y/y increase since 2009. They expect the unemployment rate to hold steady at 5.4%."
"Stronger-than-expected employment should keep the Fed on pace to hike the Fed Funds rate in September, and pulling forward of expectations could support the USD. A stronger USD and pulled-forward rate hike expectations could pressure commodity prices and weigh on commodity exporter currencies."
"The quick re-acceleration of the EUR positioning squeeze in recent days suggests EUR short positions remain entrenched, and the EUR could be an out-performer if weak payrolls puts the US economic and monetary policy divergence narrative under pressure."
"With officials suggesting they are keeping an eye on FX developments in Japan, JPY may strengthen on weak payrolls as well."
Coverage of Nonfarm Payrolls:
Tonight, you can follow all of the action with us here.