16 Jun 2015
May US headline CPI forecast at 0.6% MoM – Nomura
FXStreet (Barcelona) - Economists at Nomura believe that the increase in energy prices might push US headline CPI to the upside, forecasting a 0.6% MoM increase in May.
Key Quotes
“Headline CPI increased for the third consecutive month in April as energy prices posted only a slight decline. Core CPI increased by 0.3%, above expectations as both core services and core goods prices were higher than expected.”
“We continue to believe that the underlying pace of core inflation is 0.15-0.20% in the near term. In particular, we expect to see weakness in core goods inflation as the continued decline in import feeds through. Domestic factors, such as the West Coast port disputes, might have countered this weakness in import prices early in the year.”
“We continue to expect core services inflation to gradually move higher due to the tighter labor markets and increasing housing demand. On balance, we expect an increase of 0.22% m-o-m (+1.8% y-o-y) in core CPI.”
“We expect a sizable increase in energy prices in May to put upward pressure on headline CPI. As such, we forecast a 0.60% m-o-m (+0.2% y-o-y) change in headline CPI.”
Key Quotes
“Headline CPI increased for the third consecutive month in April as energy prices posted only a slight decline. Core CPI increased by 0.3%, above expectations as both core services and core goods prices were higher than expected.”
“We continue to believe that the underlying pace of core inflation is 0.15-0.20% in the near term. In particular, we expect to see weakness in core goods inflation as the continued decline in import feeds through. Domestic factors, such as the West Coast port disputes, might have countered this weakness in import prices early in the year.”
“We continue to expect core services inflation to gradually move higher due to the tighter labor markets and increasing housing demand. On balance, we expect an increase of 0.22% m-o-m (+1.8% y-o-y) in core CPI.”
“We expect a sizable increase in energy prices in May to put upward pressure on headline CPI. As such, we forecast a 0.60% m-o-m (+0.2% y-o-y) change in headline CPI.”