24 Jun 2015
EUR/USD vigilant on Bunds – Societe Generale
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Kit Juckes, Strategist at Societe Generale, gives his views on the correlation between the pair and German Bunds.
Key Quotes
“EUR/USD is watching the Greek debt talks but following the bond market. EUR/USD moves correlate more at the moment with the 10yr Bund/Treasury spread that with 2-year spreads”.
“These correlations are not going to last for long. But for now, they suggest that 1) EUR/USD is currently in a 1.11-1.15 range waiting for new economic developments while we all talk about Greece and”
“2) if the savage sell-off in the Bund market se saw at the start of Q2 is now over and not set to be repeated soon, then shorting EUR/USD at the upper end of that 1.11-1.15 range will work, provided the next move in the yield differential is driven by stronger US data, a renewed focus on the Fed and higher US yields”.
Key Quotes
“EUR/USD is watching the Greek debt talks but following the bond market. EUR/USD moves correlate more at the moment with the 10yr Bund/Treasury spread that with 2-year spreads”.
“These correlations are not going to last for long. But for now, they suggest that 1) EUR/USD is currently in a 1.11-1.15 range waiting for new economic developments while we all talk about Greece and”
“2) if the savage sell-off in the Bund market se saw at the start of Q2 is now over and not set to be repeated soon, then shorting EUR/USD at the upper end of that 1.11-1.15 range will work, provided the next move in the yield differential is driven by stronger US data, a renewed focus on the Fed and higher US yields”.