2 Jul 2015
US ADP payrolls serve an optimistic sign for labour market scenario in H2 2015 – DB
FXStreet (Barcelona) - According to Deutsche Bank, all the recent US economic signs point to a continuation of healthy job gains, and further see the ADP numbers as a positive sign for payrolls ahead.
Key Quotes
“ADP private payrolls rose 237k in June after the prior month was revised up 2k to 203k. This is broadly consistent with our projection of a 210k increase in private payrolls. The manufacturing ISM figures were encouraging, too, as the employment subcomponent rose to 55.5 from 51.7, which was the highest reading since last December (56.0).”
“While the ISM employment series is not well correlated with payrolls on a monthly basis—this is not the case with the ADP survey—the fact that the former has rebounded is an encouraging sign for second half 2015 hiring prospects.”
“Indeed, the ISM’s Holcomb stated that the rise in the employment series is due to anticipation of an upshift in orders over the back half of the year.”
Key Quotes
“ADP private payrolls rose 237k in June after the prior month was revised up 2k to 203k. This is broadly consistent with our projection of a 210k increase in private payrolls. The manufacturing ISM figures were encouraging, too, as the employment subcomponent rose to 55.5 from 51.7, which was the highest reading since last December (56.0).”
“While the ISM employment series is not well correlated with payrolls on a monthly basis—this is not the case with the ADP survey—the fact that the former has rebounded is an encouraging sign for second half 2015 hiring prospects.”
“Indeed, the ISM’s Holcomb stated that the rise in the employment series is due to anticipation of an upshift in orders over the back half of the year.”