20 Jul 2015
CFTC Speculative FX positioning weekly summary - ANZ
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Khoon Goh, ANZ Research, offered the positioning data for the week ending 14 July 2015 in the CFTC FX data.
Key Quotes:
"Leveraged funds pared back their net long USD positions slightly by USD0.7bn to USD19.2bn. Though Greece came to an agreement with its European creditors, the Greek parliament had yet to vote on it at the time of the CFTC cut-off date, which may explain the cautious approach by leveraged funds.
This cautious approach can be seen by the reduction in net short positions in JPY by USD3.0bn, even as short positions in EUR were increased slightly by USD0.8bn. JPY had benefitted during the Greek crisis period and this had been reflected in the positioning data (see Figure 6). But now that an agreement has been reached, we can expect the leveraged community to increase their short positions. Price action in JPY since the CFTC cut-off date suggests this is occurring.
Overall short positioning in EUR is not as extended at present compared to earlier in the year. Hence, positioning should not be a barrier to further downside in EUR/USD, especially now that Greece is out of the picture and focus returns towards monetary policy considerations.
Commodity currencies continue to be sold by leveraged funds (see Figure 14). Net short positions against AUD and NZD were increased for the fourth consecutive week. The positioning data for CAD did not capture the BoC’s rate cut on 15 July. With commodity prices remaining under downward pressure, we can expect leveraged funds to continue increasing their short positions against commodity currencies.
Overall net short positions in NZD have reached another record high (see Figure 11). Since the RBNZ cut the OCR on 11 June, leveraged funds have increased their net short positions from USD0.7bn to USD1.1bn. Though we are in uncharted territory when it comes to positioning in NZD and there is always the risk of a profit-taking related short squeeze, expectations for further interest rate cuts by the RBNZ should see leveraged funds maintaining or possibly adding further to their short positions, keeping NZD under further downward pressure."
Key Quotes:
"Leveraged funds pared back their net long USD positions slightly by USD0.7bn to USD19.2bn. Though Greece came to an agreement with its European creditors, the Greek parliament had yet to vote on it at the time of the CFTC cut-off date, which may explain the cautious approach by leveraged funds.
This cautious approach can be seen by the reduction in net short positions in JPY by USD3.0bn, even as short positions in EUR were increased slightly by USD0.8bn. JPY had benefitted during the Greek crisis period and this had been reflected in the positioning data (see Figure 6). But now that an agreement has been reached, we can expect the leveraged community to increase their short positions. Price action in JPY since the CFTC cut-off date suggests this is occurring.
Overall short positioning in EUR is not as extended at present compared to earlier in the year. Hence, positioning should not be a barrier to further downside in EUR/USD, especially now that Greece is out of the picture and focus returns towards monetary policy considerations.
Commodity currencies continue to be sold by leveraged funds (see Figure 14). Net short positions against AUD and NZD were increased for the fourth consecutive week. The positioning data for CAD did not capture the BoC’s rate cut on 15 July. With commodity prices remaining under downward pressure, we can expect leveraged funds to continue increasing their short positions against commodity currencies.
Overall net short positions in NZD have reached another record high (see Figure 11). Since the RBNZ cut the OCR on 11 June, leveraged funds have increased their net short positions from USD0.7bn to USD1.1bn. Though we are in uncharted territory when it comes to positioning in NZD and there is always the risk of a profit-taking related short squeeze, expectations for further interest rate cuts by the RBNZ should see leveraged funds maintaining or possibly adding further to their short positions, keeping NZD under further downward pressure."