23 Jul 2015
USD could hit 100.00 in the medium term – Westpac
FXStreet (Edinburgh) - Richard Franulovich, Strategist at Westpac, sees the likeliness of the USD to gather further traction and test March tops around 100.00 the figure.
Key Quotes
“The near term data and event risk calendar should play to ongoing USD upside, with risks on both advance Q2 GDP and ECI skewed on the plus side”.
“Consensus for Q2 GDP sits at 2.5% but the recovery in our US data surprise index in the last couple of months more typically fits an economy that has posted growth nearer 3% in the quarter”.
“The ECI has come in above expectations in four of the last six prints. We assume that skewed trend continues into Q2 given the ongoing firming in the labour market”.
“The FOMC statement is likely at worst USD neutral - if we see only cosmetic changes – and potentially very USD bullish if the statement is tweaked to signal that rate lift off is now fast approaching”.
“This USD up leg may well ultimately see the USD retest its March highs at
100”.
Key Quotes
“The near term data and event risk calendar should play to ongoing USD upside, with risks on both advance Q2 GDP and ECI skewed on the plus side”.
“Consensus for Q2 GDP sits at 2.5% but the recovery in our US data surprise index in the last couple of months more typically fits an economy that has posted growth nearer 3% in the quarter”.
“The ECI has come in above expectations in four of the last six prints. We assume that skewed trend continues into Q2 given the ongoing firming in the labour market”.
“The FOMC statement is likely at worst USD neutral - if we see only cosmetic changes – and potentially very USD bullish if the statement is tweaked to signal that rate lift off is now fast approaching”.
“This USD up leg may well ultimately see the USD retest its March highs at
100”.