10 Aug 2015
AUD/USD early bears emerge on Nonfarm Payrolls implications
FXStreet (Guatemala) - AUD/USD is currently trading at 0.7407 with a high of 0.7418 and a low of 0.7403.
AUD/USD has been in recovery mode since meeting yearly lows at the end of July's business. The currency is starting the week slightly offered in light trade in the aftermath of the latest Nonfarm Payrolls from the US economy closing last week's trade. The number of 215K was missing expectations of 225k, but is still seen as a good enough number for the Fed to seriously consider raising rates in September.
AUD/USD weekend news
Over the weekend, a number of Chinese data releases came in the trade balance, and CPI's. The trade balance was $43.020B missing an expected $53.250B while CPI M/M 1.6% vs 1.55 expected and 0.3%,inline Y/Y. We await for further releases from China with Retail Sales and Industrial Production YoY for July later in the week.
AUD/USD price stability on Aussie economy improvements
For Australia, the Aussie is riding a positive latest RBA statement released the day before Nonfarm Payrolls. from the US where the unemployment forecasts were lowered for the next two years against a positive backdrop in the unemployment report along with a recent change in language in respect to the price of the currency, seen as consolidating the recent drop in global commodity prices. All of which have been supporting the price this month, up from yearly lows of 0.7234 and trading almost two full cents higher on the week.
AUD/USD events ahead
This week from the calendar, RBA's deputy governor Lowe will be making a speech and we have the consumer inflation expectations. From the US Retails Sales, Producer Price's and in Michigan Sentiment stand out before next week's CPI's and Fed minutes to really drive the price direction in the greenback for August. "We expect this report to reinforce the Fed's prevailing bias for a September start to the normalization in rates and signal a shift in the monetary policy bias in a hawkish direction."
In an interview last week, voting member Lockhart signalled to the market that September could be an appropriate date for lift-off. The key driver is going to be the labour market of which developments between now and the next FMOC in September will be monitored closely and driving the price in the US dollar and potentially leaving the Aussie exposed to the downside.
AUD/USD technically challenged on 0.74 handle
Technically, AUD/USD has been challenging the down channel at 0.7390 and scored levels on to the 0.74 handle, but it is finding resistance tough and price momentum struggles.
Only breaks a strong series of closes above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7454 might trigger a recovery towards the 0.7557 55-day moving average. Otherwise, the 0.7250 area hovers above the 0.7235 July low guarding the base of the two-year channel at 0.7188, the long-term Fibonacci retracement at 0.7185 and the 14 year support line at 0.7144.
AUD/USD has been in recovery mode since meeting yearly lows at the end of July's business. The currency is starting the week slightly offered in light trade in the aftermath of the latest Nonfarm Payrolls from the US economy closing last week's trade. The number of 215K was missing expectations of 225k, but is still seen as a good enough number for the Fed to seriously consider raising rates in September.
AUD/USD weekend news
Over the weekend, a number of Chinese data releases came in the trade balance, and CPI's. The trade balance was $43.020B missing an expected $53.250B while CPI M/M 1.6% vs 1.55 expected and 0.3%,inline Y/Y. We await for further releases from China with Retail Sales and Industrial Production YoY for July later in the week.
AUD/USD price stability on Aussie economy improvements
For Australia, the Aussie is riding a positive latest RBA statement released the day before Nonfarm Payrolls. from the US where the unemployment forecasts were lowered for the next two years against a positive backdrop in the unemployment report along with a recent change in language in respect to the price of the currency, seen as consolidating the recent drop in global commodity prices. All of which have been supporting the price this month, up from yearly lows of 0.7234 and trading almost two full cents higher on the week.
AUD/USD events ahead
This week from the calendar, RBA's deputy governor Lowe will be making a speech and we have the consumer inflation expectations. From the US Retails Sales, Producer Price's and in Michigan Sentiment stand out before next week's CPI's and Fed minutes to really drive the price direction in the greenback for August. "We expect this report to reinforce the Fed's prevailing bias for a September start to the normalization in rates and signal a shift in the monetary policy bias in a hawkish direction."
In an interview last week, voting member Lockhart signalled to the market that September could be an appropriate date for lift-off. The key driver is going to be the labour market of which developments between now and the next FMOC in September will be monitored closely and driving the price in the US dollar and potentially leaving the Aussie exposed to the downside.
AUD/USD technically challenged on 0.74 handle
Technically, AUD/USD has been challenging the down channel at 0.7390 and scored levels on to the 0.74 handle, but it is finding resistance tough and price momentum struggles.
Only breaks a strong series of closes above the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 0.7454 might trigger a recovery towards the 0.7557 55-day moving average. Otherwise, the 0.7250 area hovers above the 0.7235 July low guarding the base of the two-year channel at 0.7188, the long-term Fibonacci retracement at 0.7185 and the 14 year support line at 0.7144.