2 Dec 2015
AUD: Trading on a sticky wicket - Westpac
FXStreet (Delhi) – Rob Rennie, Research Analyst at Westpac, expects that the A$ would become increasingly sticky around the 0.70 level and this week's balance of payments tended to back up these views, though I am less confident that we will see the same 'stickiness' into 2016.
Key Quotes
“There have been a number of factors driving this view.
• A rising pipeline of foreign companies merging with or acquiring Australian companies through the year, and a number of significant deals set to complete in the months ahead.
• Domestic equity issuance tends to drive foreign demand, and this year has been the best year for equity issuance since 2009.
• EUR funded carry trades will likely have become an important source of demand for the A$.
• Yield related demand should also have improved as ACGBs have underperformed.
• Finally, speculative shorts covering positions will also have been a source of demand.
• This week's balance of payments tended to back up my views. I suspect the data may see a bit of catch up to reflect the size of the equity inflow.
However, while my 'sticky' argument appears to have worked well for the A$ through Q3 and will probably continue into Q4, I am less confident that we will see the same into 2016. The deterioration in the current account, the fact that capital flows are becoming more speculative and that the A$ will become much less attractive north of 0.7350/ 0.7400 all argue this point. Thus I remain happy with our view that the A$ will head towards and eventually through 0.70 as we move into 2016.”
Key Quotes
“There have been a number of factors driving this view.
• A rising pipeline of foreign companies merging with or acquiring Australian companies through the year, and a number of significant deals set to complete in the months ahead.
• Domestic equity issuance tends to drive foreign demand, and this year has been the best year for equity issuance since 2009.
• EUR funded carry trades will likely have become an important source of demand for the A$.
• Yield related demand should also have improved as ACGBs have underperformed.
• Finally, speculative shorts covering positions will also have been a source of demand.
• This week's balance of payments tended to back up my views. I suspect the data may see a bit of catch up to reflect the size of the equity inflow.
However, while my 'sticky' argument appears to have worked well for the A$ through Q3 and will probably continue into Q4, I am less confident that we will see the same into 2016. The deterioration in the current account, the fact that capital flows are becoming more speculative and that the A$ will become much less attractive north of 0.7350/ 0.7400 all argue this point. Thus I remain happy with our view that the A$ will head towards and eventually through 0.70 as we move into 2016.”