2 Dec 2015
US ADP employment survey and Yellen speech in the limelight – Deutsche Bank
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Deutsche Bank, suggests that the highlight of today’s busy day is likely to be the release of US ADP numbers which will be followed by Yellen’s speech.
Key Quotes
“This morning’s ADP survey should show a slower rate of hiring, which is broadly consistent with our estimate of just 1.5% current-quarter real GDP growth. Our research has found the ADP survey to be the single best predictor of changes in monthly private payrolls. Hence, we will revisit our November employment forecast following this morning’s ADP results.”
“In essence, we are treating the 271k increase in October nonfarm payrolls, the strongest monthly payroll gain year-to-date, as an outlier. However, even if we see substantial payback in November employment when the data are released on Friday, we doubt the very strong market expectations of a rate hike at the December 15-16 FOMC meeting will be altered.”
“As a reminder, Fed Chair Yellen speaks this afternoon on the economy before the Economic Club of Washington. This will be a preview of what she will say before the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) on Thursday. Yellen’s comments are likely to reinforce the FOMC’s desire to raise interest rates later this month. There should be little in her prepared remarks suggesting otherwise. Moreover, the Chair is likely to reiterate that the normalization of interest rates will be data dependent, and the Fed’s current projections of growth and inflation imply a historically modest path of rate hikes.”
Key Quotes
“This morning’s ADP survey should show a slower rate of hiring, which is broadly consistent with our estimate of just 1.5% current-quarter real GDP growth. Our research has found the ADP survey to be the single best predictor of changes in monthly private payrolls. Hence, we will revisit our November employment forecast following this morning’s ADP results.”
“In essence, we are treating the 271k increase in October nonfarm payrolls, the strongest monthly payroll gain year-to-date, as an outlier. However, even if we see substantial payback in November employment when the data are released on Friday, we doubt the very strong market expectations of a rate hike at the December 15-16 FOMC meeting will be altered.”
“As a reminder, Fed Chair Yellen speaks this afternoon on the economy before the Economic Club of Washington. This will be a preview of what she will say before the Joint Economic Committee (JEC) on Thursday. Yellen’s comments are likely to reinforce the FOMC’s desire to raise interest rates later this month. There should be little in her prepared remarks suggesting otherwise. Moreover, the Chair is likely to reiterate that the normalization of interest rates will be data dependent, and the Fed’s current projections of growth and inflation imply a historically modest path of rate hikes.”