3 Dec 2015
The big-bang ECB meet is coming your way - SocGen
FXStreet (Delhi) – Kit Juckes, Research Analyst at Societe Generale, lay down his expectations from today’s EB meet.
Key Quotes
“We expect a 10bp cut in the ECB’s Deposit Rate to -0.3% at today’s meeting, more asset purchases (an increase of Eur 10-20bn/month to Eur 70-80bn, including a shift to widen the universe of bonds bought) and the reference to continuing purchases until September 2016 may (should) be dropped. A two-tier deposit rate to reduce the cost to banks is possible, as well.”
“Will this be enough to move the Euro given the way expectations have been ramped up? Our best guess is that Mr Draghi will send a sufficiently dovish and committed message to the market that the Euro will remain under pressure, though two-way volatility can pick up.”
“The US nonmanufacturing ISM this afternoon, non-farm payrolls tomorrow, OPEC and the FOMC meeting on December 16 are all still ahead. A correction in the EUR/USD fall is likely after the last of these, however, as positions are reduced and Christmas presents are wrapped.”
Key Quotes
“We expect a 10bp cut in the ECB’s Deposit Rate to -0.3% at today’s meeting, more asset purchases (an increase of Eur 10-20bn/month to Eur 70-80bn, including a shift to widen the universe of bonds bought) and the reference to continuing purchases until September 2016 may (should) be dropped. A two-tier deposit rate to reduce the cost to banks is possible, as well.”
“Will this be enough to move the Euro given the way expectations have been ramped up? Our best guess is that Mr Draghi will send a sufficiently dovish and committed message to the market that the Euro will remain under pressure, though two-way volatility can pick up.”
“The US nonmanufacturing ISM this afternoon, non-farm payrolls tomorrow, OPEC and the FOMC meeting on December 16 are all still ahead. A correction in the EUR/USD fall is likely after the last of these, however, as positions are reduced and Christmas presents are wrapped.”