24 Dec 2015
Year 2016: What to watch for? – CLSA
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at CLSA, suggests that after sitting pat for most of 2015, the Fed raised rates for the first time in almost a decade which was a major milestone to close off the year, rising rates are generally positive for the currency.
Key Quotes
“Note, the greenback has already rallied 23% since mid-2014; Laurence Balanco expects further dollar upside to 2018 but with various resistance levels along the way. Chris Wood warns of financial market turbulence, not just as rates rise but as spreads widen. This could prompt an unexpected new round of QE by the Fed.”
“There is a divergence in the fragile view on financial markets and the firmer prospects we see for real economies. China’s growth, while slowing, should remain well ahead of the other economies that make up the three largest globally. The renminbi could depreciate somewhat against the dollar, but we do not see a major devaluation. Meanwhile, India’s growth is poised for a pickup.”
“Resource-driven emerging-market (EM) economies will get on firmer footing as the rout in commodity prices abates. Eric Fishwick believes this will lead to global trade picking up. By end-2016, the USA, Europe and Asia may have synchronised growth, for the first time since 2010.”
Key Quotes
“Note, the greenback has already rallied 23% since mid-2014; Laurence Balanco expects further dollar upside to 2018 but with various resistance levels along the way. Chris Wood warns of financial market turbulence, not just as rates rise but as spreads widen. This could prompt an unexpected new round of QE by the Fed.”
“There is a divergence in the fragile view on financial markets and the firmer prospects we see for real economies. China’s growth, while slowing, should remain well ahead of the other economies that make up the three largest globally. The renminbi could depreciate somewhat against the dollar, but we do not see a major devaluation. Meanwhile, India’s growth is poised for a pickup.”
“Resource-driven emerging-market (EM) economies will get on firmer footing as the rout in commodity prices abates. Eric Fishwick believes this will lead to global trade picking up. By end-2016, the USA, Europe and Asia may have synchronised growth, for the first time since 2010.”