4 Nov 2013
Flash: Very low probability of Dec taper – RBS
FXstreet.com (London) - Research teams at RBS said better US data at the margin increase the chances of a Fed December taper.
Key Quotes:
“However, the probability of this still seems very low. Along with our views on this week's policy meetings, this leaves us reluctant to chase EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower”.
“We have also taken the opportunity represented by the release of our November Global Currency Monthly publication to revise higher our end-year GBP/USD forecast from the mid-1.50s to above 1.60”.
“Having recovered a large part of its early 2013 losses, we remain of the view that GBP is vulnerable to a softening in high frequency data. However, it's unlikely that GBP will underperform a Fed liquidity driven USD this year”.
“Upside risks centre on a housing market recovery that pressures interest rates higher”.
Key Quotes:
“However, the probability of this still seems very low. Along with our views on this week's policy meetings, this leaves us reluctant to chase EUR/USD and GBP/USD lower”.
“We have also taken the opportunity represented by the release of our November Global Currency Monthly publication to revise higher our end-year GBP/USD forecast from the mid-1.50s to above 1.60”.
“Having recovered a large part of its early 2013 losses, we remain of the view that GBP is vulnerable to a softening in high frequency data. However, it's unlikely that GBP will underperform a Fed liquidity driven USD this year”.
“Upside risks centre on a housing market recovery that pressures interest rates higher”.