6 Jan 2016
US: FOMC minutes, ADP employment and trade balance in the focus - Nomura
FXStreet (Delhi) – Research Team at Nomura, presents the preview of the key economic releases from the US in today’s session.
Key Quotes
“ADP employment: In line with our forecast for BLS private nonfarm payrolls, we forecast that ADP private employment gained an additional 210k jobs in December (Consensus: 195k).
Trade balance: October’s trade report was consistent with other data that show demand for US manufactured goods abroad is slowing considerably due to overall global weakness and the stronger dollar. We expect the trade deficit to widen to -$44.9bn in November (Consensus: -$44.0bn), as we forecast a continued decline in exports, which should outweigh a drop in imports.
Factory orders: Factory orders have been shaky since late last year due to the plethora of headwinds in the industrial sector. We will likely see a protracted slowdown in factory orders as the headwinds facing the sector continue to linger. Consensus expects a 0.2% decline in November.
ISM non-manufacturing: The ISM non-manufacturing index fell below expectations in November, providing a possible sign of some vulnerability of the non-manufacturing sector to external factors such as weaker global growth and the stronger dollar. That said, we expect the non-manufacturing sector to continue to be mostly resilient to these factors as domestic demand appears to be robust. Thus, we expect the headline index to remain firmly in expansion territory at 55.5 in December (Consensus: 56.0).
FOMC minutes: At its December meeting, the FOMC raised its target for the federal funds rate, as we expected, for the first time since the “Great Recession”. Now, the focus turns to subsequent rate hikes. The minutes should give us greater insights into the FOMC’s plan for future hikes. We will also look for further discussions about the “neutral” interest rate.”
Key Quotes
“ADP employment: In line with our forecast for BLS private nonfarm payrolls, we forecast that ADP private employment gained an additional 210k jobs in December (Consensus: 195k).
Trade balance: October’s trade report was consistent with other data that show demand for US manufactured goods abroad is slowing considerably due to overall global weakness and the stronger dollar. We expect the trade deficit to widen to -$44.9bn in November (Consensus: -$44.0bn), as we forecast a continued decline in exports, which should outweigh a drop in imports.
Factory orders: Factory orders have been shaky since late last year due to the plethora of headwinds in the industrial sector. We will likely see a protracted slowdown in factory orders as the headwinds facing the sector continue to linger. Consensus expects a 0.2% decline in November.
ISM non-manufacturing: The ISM non-manufacturing index fell below expectations in November, providing a possible sign of some vulnerability of the non-manufacturing sector to external factors such as weaker global growth and the stronger dollar. That said, we expect the non-manufacturing sector to continue to be mostly resilient to these factors as domestic demand appears to be robust. Thus, we expect the headline index to remain firmly in expansion territory at 55.5 in December (Consensus: 56.0).
FOMC minutes: At its December meeting, the FOMC raised its target for the federal funds rate, as we expected, for the first time since the “Great Recession”. Now, the focus turns to subsequent rate hikes. The minutes should give us greater insights into the FOMC’s plan for future hikes. We will also look for further discussions about the “neutral” interest rate.”