8 Jan 2016
The Chiunese crisis - how concerning is it? - ANZ
FXStreet (Guatemala) - Analysts at ANZ explained that the tumultuous start to the New Year is keeping us all on our toes. In the space of a week, we have had growing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and Asia, a rout in the Chinese stock market that reverberated around the world and a sudden devaluation of the yuan.
Key Quotes:
"Almost all of these events have put further downward pressure on commodity currencies (including AUD) one way or another, which was not helped by the confirmation of higher US oil inventories. Amid the better tone of domestic economic data in Australia, these ructions overseas are a good reminder that global events provide the main risks for a small open economy like Australia.
How concerning are developments in China? Chinese equities have plunged again and authorities have surprised with a relatively sharp depreciation of the yuan. This has obviously created nervousness and uncertainty in markets and created a ‘risk off’ tone.
These developments might be indicative of the challenges facing China’s economy (particularly around leverage) and its authorities, but it could also reflect a high degree of noise.
Only time will tell. On the yuan, our China team’s view is that the depreciation is a policy statement from the PBoC, intended to signal its willingness to establish a flexible exchange rate. They also see the higher USD/CNY fix as consistent with monetary easing from a macroeconomic perspective, useful to support real activity and inflation."
Key Quotes:
"Almost all of these events have put further downward pressure on commodity currencies (including AUD) one way or another, which was not helped by the confirmation of higher US oil inventories. Amid the better tone of domestic economic data in Australia, these ructions overseas are a good reminder that global events provide the main risks for a small open economy like Australia.
How concerning are developments in China? Chinese equities have plunged again and authorities have surprised with a relatively sharp depreciation of the yuan. This has obviously created nervousness and uncertainty in markets and created a ‘risk off’ tone.
These developments might be indicative of the challenges facing China’s economy (particularly around leverage) and its authorities, but it could also reflect a high degree of noise.
Only time will tell. On the yuan, our China team’s view is that the depreciation is a policy statement from the PBoC, intended to signal its willingness to establish a flexible exchange rate. They also see the higher USD/CNY fix as consistent with monetary easing from a macroeconomic perspective, useful to support real activity and inflation."